Curse

BlueXIV · Dec 23, 2009, 02:05 AM // 02:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrseasonalt

from a statistic point of view if you did do it every 5 minutes for ten days you would have done 2880 runs which would technically give you a >100% chance of getting the bear if that is the actual drop rate. Now obviously you are not guaranteed a bear no matter how many times you do a run but i dont know where u got that 60 whatever percent.

L2Stats before talking please.

Doing 2880 runs would give you an AVERAGE of 1.008 bears. However, that does NOT give you ">100% chance of getting the bear."

Think about it. Say I flip a coin three times. Since the probability of getting a heads on each try would be 50%, does that mean I have a 150% chance of getting heads at least once?

If you answered yes, stop reading this because it wont help you.

The actual probability to get >=1 heads would be the probability of getting heads on the first try, plus the probability of getting heads on the second try or third PROVIDED YOU DIDN'T GET HEADS ON THE FIRST TRY. So that would be .5 + .5*.5 + .5^2*.5 = .875. So if you repeated this experiment 1000 times, 875 out of 1000 times, you would get at least one head.

Further more, as trials -> very large, the probability of getting at least one success at the mean (2857 in this case), would approach 1-e^-1, because binomial distributions can be approximated with normal distributions. That is how I got that 63.2% number.

And @ Eragon, .00035^2.

Braxton619 · Dec 23, 2009, 02:06 AM // 02:06

In my opinion, its not worth to farm for it. I mean in 3000+ runs, you probably could have gotten 500-1000e... to buy one.

Curo · Dec 23, 2009, 02:45 AM // 02:45

Eh...I stopped reading when people started talking about doing it every 5 minutes. I don't know about you, but it takes me 3.5 minutes minimum running there, and another 4 minutes or so for the final fight (and I fight it; waiting is even longer).

Anyways...math = cool ^^

It helps us to grasp the reality of things. I agree that the odds don't really matter when they are slim as these. Just stick a giant horseshoe up your butt and hope for the best?

BlueXIV · Dec 23, 2009, 02:46 AM // 02:46

Hehe, that's why I used a more conservative estimate of 8minute a run. I don't feel like 5 minutes is consistently possible without cons :P

Martin Alvito · Dec 23, 2009, 03:45 AM // 03:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueXIV

Hehe, that's why I used a more conservative estimate of 8minute a run. I don't feel like 5 minutes is consistently possible without cons :P

Six is doable with a ranger without cons. Haven't tried Necro, which is the other AoE DPS option. If you can kill Grentches in a hurry, you can keep the NPCs alive and steamroll the end.

jonnieboi05 · Dec 23, 2009, 05:49 AM // 05:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blocksofwood

Instead of 2845 runs strength of snow quest, I could....
complete Tyria and GW:EN perhaps Cathan.
get my Legendary survivor title.
get my sweet tooth title.
complete 150 AB matches.

lol, this. or just buy one.

Divine Ashes · Dec 23, 2009, 05:53 AM // 05:53

I like the thrill of the chance of getting one drop

. Plus I don't mind the quest, and the rewards are pretty good in themselves.

Shadowspawn X · Dec 23, 2009, 06:02 AM // 06:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Six is doable with a ranger without cons. Haven't tried Necro, which is the other AoE DPS option. If you can kill Grentches in a hurry, you can keep the NPCs alive and steamroll the end.

This is correct, but with one caveat. You must be a good dodger and kite well. Lots of pve'rs don't have the skill for this. Its easy for pvp guys who qstep and what not, but for pve peeps not so easy.

snoozer80 · Dec 23, 2009, 08:19 AM // 08:19

I do it with my necro in 6 minutes sometimes. But usually its 7 minutes.

cosmic massacre · Dec 23, 2009, 08:35 AM // 08:35

can't even do the quest,first or 2nd group i get hammered.Tried a few times,not wasting my time anymore so i give up on this 1.

Morgoth the dark · Dec 23, 2009, 09:27 AM // 09:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curo

Eh...I stopped reading when people started talking about doing it every 5 minutes. I don't know about you, but it takes me 3.5 minutes minimum running there, and another 4 minutes or so for the final fight (and I fight it; waiting is even longer).

Anyways...math = cool ^^

It helps us to grasp the reality of things. I agree that the odds don't really matter when they are slim as these. Just stick a giant horseshoe up your butt and hope for the best?

the thing is, i can complete whole quest in 6 minutes. So i guess it can be done in 5 as well, i'll try to do that.

dr love · Dec 23, 2009, 11:13 AM // 11:13

keep farming people! we need more bears! if 100 of us do 40 runs each, that should be 1 bear. then we can split it

Windf0rce · Dec 23, 2009, 11:19 AM // 11:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmic massacre

can't even do the quest,first or 2nd group i get hammered.Tried a few times,not wasting my time anymore so i give up on this 1.

Here's how most people, including me, do it:

a). Run past every monster as fast as you can and use the heal (Snowcone) whenever you get below 200 Health; if you are a Monk you have an additional heal so it's really safe to run past everything;
b). Stay close to the door at the very end and let the snowmen do all the work, don't help or aggro anything so you are safe and can go afk for around 8-10 minutes; the snowmen resurrect endless times so don't worry if they wipe/die;
c). Collect all Shard drops and open the chest.
Optional: Drink your alchool and use tonics while doing this for added benefit.

I agree with the post above. Don't give up people, the more running, more Bears we get around. I'm going to keep running even if my time is limited and I do around 10 runs a day. It adds up.

Dzjudz · Dec 23, 2009, 12:59 PM // 12:59

a) Preload a Hidden Rock as soon as you enter the dungeon.
b) Run past everything to the end. If you encounter an Icy Grentch, use a snowball with the preloaded hidden rock to interrupt Icicles (snare). Use Hmm Snowcone if you drop below 200hp, which shouldn't happen -> strafing is good.
c) Stand in front of the Freezie group and cast Ice Fort just as the two groups approach, this gives you a good edge in the whole end fight.
d) Whenever Ice Fort is recharged, try to aggro as many as you can and cast, this takes away a lot of pressure from the snowmen.

Carinae · Dec 23, 2009, 06:56 PM // 18:56

NOTES:
Use the quest "The Strength of Snow"
Always do it from LA, spawn points are closer to Warden.
If you MUST do it from Kamadan, use Fruitcakes to speed up the walk.
Every class works, but I prefer Monk for the extra heal/defense.

PROCEDURE:
a) Enter Dungeon
b) Use Red/Green Rock candy or a Cupcake
c) Use Hidden Rock
d) RUN to Freezie
e) Interrupt Icicles if you encounter an Icy Grentch. As soon as it's interrupted, continue running.
f) Use "C" to monitor closest grentch, when he uses Snowball, change directions slightly and it will miss.
g) Use Snowcone to heal. You should only need it ONCE right before Freezie.
h) FIGHT! Fighting speeds the battle up, and lets you make more runs sooner. As a monk, you can safely handle 6-10 grentchies BY YOURSELF. Learn to use your THREE knockdown spells and Ice Fort.
i) WATCH FREEZIE. Right before he dies (first death only) cast Ice Fort. His death will recharge your skills, so you can recast Ice Fort in 10s. When the second Ice Fort ends cast IceBreaker.
j) Collect shards and Chest goodies
k) While running to Rift Warden, abandon quest.
l) Repeat.

EDIT: This produces 4-5 minute runs, consistently.

EDIT2: Use an Enchanting weapon and a shield with a Reduced Dazed mod. They both help.

Swift Cola · Dec 23, 2009, 07:04 PM // 19:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Six is doable with a ranger without cons. Haven't tried Necro, which is the other AoE DPS option. If you can kill Grentches in a hurry, you can keep the NPCs alive and steamroll the end.

I consistently get 6 minute runs. Before picking up all the shards and chest, I can squeeze in a high 5 minute run. I run ranger for this. You can pop an ice Fort and easily take on one side by yourself. (Given you don't have a Sneaky Grentch, can't really dodge a touch skill.)

Minami · Dec 23, 2009, 07:39 PM // 19:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonnieBoi05

lol, this. or just buy one.

You make it sound so easy and I would love to, how about you just give me the rest of the money I need?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carinae

k) While running to Rift Warden, abandon quest.

Just to be clear, you don't have to abandon the quest, you can take the reward too. That will cost you an extra rezone and a run to the rift warden, but you get 5 more cc shards

El Presidente · Dec 23, 2009, 07:44 PM // 19:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carinae

j) Collect shards and Chest goodies
k) While running to Rift Warden, abandon quest.
l) Repeat.

Why bother to collect the shards at the end...yet, (k) "abandon quest"?

Collect the reward from the Rift Warden, change districts and reacquire the quest...that takes maybe 10 more seconds?

Dzjudz · Dec 23, 2009, 08:03 PM // 20:03

Get shards before chest or you lose them when timer runs out.

Coney · Dec 23, 2009, 08:35 PM // 20:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueXIV

Statistically, repeating the mean times of trials (2857 in this case, if that is indeed the drop rate), would only give you a 1-(e^-1) chance of getting a success. So if you really did grind it out all wintersday and opened the damned chest 2857 times (which at 5 minutes a run, would be a little under 240 hours, or ten days straight, no breaks), you would only have a 63.2% chance of getting the bear.

This. I can't believe it took this long for someone to post the correct answer.

BTW, that formula above isn't quite right (it is for the singleton case presented):
P = 1 - (1-p)^n,
where p is single trial success probability in the range (0,1),
and n is number of trials run >=1.

As should be obvious from the above formula, no matter now many trials you perform, there is still an infinitesimal chance of failure (P approaches 1 (100%), but never equals it).

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueXIV

Further more, as trials -> very large, the probability of getting at least one success at the mean (2857 in this case), would approach 1-e^-1, because binomial distributions can be approximated with normal distributions. That is how I got that 63.2% number.

That explains it!